SOUTH DAKOTA STRAIGHT TALK

Republicans in tomorrow’s off year elections are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Off year elections are read like tea leaves to determine which way the national political winds are blowing. Real or not the results are a reading of the political temperature of the country.

The GOP is poised to make strong showing in the two marquis elections tomorrow for the Governorships of Virginia and New Jersey. Both are states with Democrat incumbents and both states that Barack Obama carried in 2008. Current polling shows that Virginia should land in the Republican win column and New Jersey is a toss up.

The news of two GOP wins or a GOP win and a close race in The Garden State would be a big step in changing the political fortunes of the Republican Party.

Unfortunately events that are taking place in far upstate New York is going to take any shine off the GOP’s major election gains. New York’s 23^rd Congressional District that borders Canada has become the epicenter of a fight among Republicans that is taking the story of the rejection of Obama leadership and resurgence of the GOP away from above the fold. Electronic media will not be leading with Virginia and New Jersey but talking about Plattsburg, NY.

Essentially what has happened is that President Obama has appointed the District’s Congressman John McHugh to be Secretary of the Army, creating the vacancy. The 23d District is reliably Republican having consecutively elected Republicans for the past 120 years. Congressman McHugh served the 23^rd for the last 16 years. Upon the vacancy under New York law and party rules a group of legally designated Republican officials from the 11 counties within the District selected State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as the Republican nominee for the Special Election that will be held tomorrow. BTW the 23^rd District has an approximate 50,000 Republican voter registration advantage.

The other candidates in the Special Election are Doug Hoffman the Conservative Party candidate and Bill Owens the Democrat Party candidate. Early polling showed Ms. Scozzafava with the lead. She was endorsed by the Party establishment both NY State Party Chairman Ed Cox (factoid – Cox is the husband of Tricia Nixon and consequently Richard Nixon’s son in law and it was speculated in 2006 that Cox might be the GOP candidate against Hillary Rodham) and Michael Steele, Republican National Committee Chairman.

I empathize with both Chairmen. It is the duty of party officials at all levels to support the party’s candidates. You don’t have to like them; you don’t have to agree with – It Just Comes with the Territory!

It seems that Ms. Scozzafava has some positions that didn’t sit well with all in particular the Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck and Pat Buchanan types. After raising the decibel level of many of the GOP candidate’s unorthodox opinions, the political ground in upstate New York began to change. Several office holders and several wanna be office holders weighed in. Not to be helpful but to get in on the act and to benefit their own cause. Some pretty high profile persons (both supporting her and abandoning the GOP endorsement and supporting the Conservative candidate) that included Dick Armey, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and of course the pundits.

I certainly do not share all of the GOP candidate’s views but it is not in the party’s best interest to wander off the reservation. Keep in the mind that New York Republicans are not the same as Texas, Wyoming, or South Dakota Republicans. There are differences. Also understand that a Republican presence has all but disappeared in the Northeast. New York is the only state in the Northeast to have Republican representation in the U S House and in NY there are only 3 Republicans out of 29 including the vacant 23^rd. Thus it might not be surprising that the people in the District might tend to the moderate side.

I could go on about party loyalty and all that but the plot thickens. Because of the national attention, Mr. Hoffman the Conservative candidate was blessed with about $3 million dollars in donations from out of the District. The money combined with highlighting of Ms. Scozzafava’s liberal positions has put the lady in the cellar.  If things couldn’t get any stranger on Saturday Dede dropped out and on Sunday endorsed Mr. Owens the Democrat.

Why she backed out I don’t know, with 3 days to go she should have stuck it out. Her endorsement of the Democrat is disgusting. She was the GOP candidate and like Republican officials needing to stay loyal to the party she should have not endorsed.

If you are upset at Republican Party officials selecting her, you should be. But as I often point out you must play by the rules, not change them in the middle of the game. After the election deep six the GOP officials and change the selection rules not grouse about your candidate - once selected it’s too late for that.

Had she been elected she would have caucused with the GOP (House Republican Leader John Boehner rightfully endorsed her). Now no matter who wins, Hoffman or Owens the sails of the GOP ship will have been trimmed. The culprit is Republican Party squabbling.

Virginia and New Jersey results Wednesday could have heralded a bright new day for the GOP, but New York 23 changed that.