SOUTH DAKOTA STRAIGHT TALK

Making predictions ten months in advance of elections to paraphrase is four eternities in politics. Even just before Election Day making predictions of political outcomes can be dicey! The final answer in a Democracy is left to the people not the politicians and not the political scientists. No matter how hard they try to position public opinion and sell candidacies, the almost unpredictable Jo Anne and Joe Six Pack have the last word.

Today the Overriding National Issue is Rebuilding Trust In Government. This is the BIG issue of 2006. After Schiavo and Katrina the people are saying, “the system is broken and can it be fixed?” It should not be a particularly good year for incumbents but pubic disgust with perceived Government’s failure to deal with public issues cuts both ways. This disgust will work nearly as much against Democrats as it does Republicans.

The party of the President in the six-year election usually does not fare well. This year should not be any different but I expect at the end of the day Republican losses except in Governorships should not be that great.

The momentum should be with the Democrats but it is not. Democrats have no agenda and all they do nationally is hate President Bush. With the way they conducted themselves in the Alito confirmation hearings they actually were the losers. The GOP is in overdrive to revamp their Congressional Leadership. They should be. But they need to put new faces in the Majority Leader’s office. I am not talking just about Representative Blunt but Senator Frist as well.

The Democrats are sticking with the whiners, Pelosii and Reid. They should be pushing up new leadership like Rahm Emanuel (articulate and smart) and finding a place for Stephanie Herseth (also articulate (when she wants to be) and smart. In the Senate, the Democrats should consider Evan Bayh or Russ Feingold.

For contrast consider the National Party Chairmen,  Ken Mehlman and Howard Dean. One the voice of calm and reason the other a loose cannon, outspoken wildman.

There will be lots on positioning for the 2008 Presidential Sweepstakes but I’ll leave my thoughts on that race at this juncture until a later post.

My predictions at this time – The GOP loses a seat or two in the U. S. Senate, and the GOP retain their majority in the U. S. House unless something develops in the Texas re re districting legal development. The GOP loses a cluster of Governorships - maybe even six to eight turnovers. The loss of Governorships could be a disturbing harbinger for Republicans going into the 2008 Presidential.

Mike Rounds will easily win re election but depending on the race that Volesky and the Democrat party put on and despite his apparent popularity will not get blowout numbers like Janklow (1982), Thune (2000) or Pressler (1978).

Stephanie Herseth will win by Blowout numbers even if she does have opposition. (And boy do I hope I am in la la land on this one). She has acted as independent as she claimed she would.

Representative Herseth appears not to have a grounded political philosophy that she acts on. She is beginning to remind me of the young Larry Pressler. It is almost like she is taking her plays right out of his game book. Senator Pressler also did not seem to have an overriding political philosophy. In his early Congressional career (until about 1984) it was hard to understand where he was coming from. He was an unreliable vote for the party position and Congressional Quarterly (CQ) ranked him the lowest Republican Senator in his support of President Ronald Reagan. Herseth and Pressler also seem to share the same modus operandi in embracing coalitions with support by throwing lots of our cash at them and share an affinity for taking of photographs with constituents at every possible opportunity and never missing a photo or media opportunity.

Statewide and State House Elections – Not much to say – I am working with several candidates and campaigns and will not share my opinions on this level of races. After the State Party conventions and nominating petitions are filed I may add an opinion.

South Dakota Ballot Initiatives – The two big ballot measures will be the STOP and JAIL measures. Both will have active campaigns and both have the potential for disastrous effects on South Dakota life and government.

STOP is patently unfair to taxpayers and will discourage investment in real property and keep our young people and businesses from investing their future in South Dakota, although it has lots of pizzazz for an un informed electorate. It could be a very close election or may win big depending on any real organized opposition. The argument to always know what your valuation is (and by implication that your taxes won’t rise too much despite any larger rises in your property’s true value) is a very appealing argument. STOP also has the potential to destroy the tax system in South Dakota.

The JAIL measure undermines out judicial system substituting the rule of law with vigilante justice. It also undermines all public officials from taking any action. This proposal is being funded and put forth by nut jobs in California and joined by a few like-minded South Dakotans. This proposition was on the ballot in California and it was so extreme that California thought in too far out (Imagine That!) JAIL is so far out of the mainstream that the entire South Dakota Legislature is considering a resolution in opposition.

Should the Tourism advocates get their initiative mandating that school start after September 1 on the ballot, this too will be an interesting campaign to watch.

There are some elections across the Country that will be interesting that may have some national import and may be bell weathers to future political trends and elections.

Interesting National Elections –

Watch the Governor elections in California, Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado, Minnesota, and my personal wild card Texas. All these races have possible impact the 2008 Presidential. The personalities are everywhere. It will be interesting to watch the Governator in California, Lynn Swan in Pennsylvania, and the Kinkster in Texas. It is too bad that Louisiana is not having a Gubernatorial election. They really need a new leader.

Singer and author Kinky Friedman is running as an independent in the Texas Governor’s race in the mold of Jesse Ventura and The Arnold. Expect him to get on the ballot. He taps into the current mood and may be an upset. A recent Zogby poll shows  Kinky getting 13 percent of the vote with 49 percent saying he should definitely be on the ballot. I may post more on Kinky later but it will be an interesting race to watch. In the meantime, Governor Perry appears to be safe, but he better keep checking over his shoulder.

The U. S. Senate races that bear watching are the Junior/Junior races. That’s Pennsylvania (Rick Santorum v. Bob Casey Jr.) and New Jersey (Bob Menendez v. Tom Kean Jr.) with sons of popular Governors running against incumbents for their seat. Both states are  important Presidential election states and bear watching. Tons of cash will be spent there both share media markets so that 527s and Special Interest Groups can run issue ads there and perhaps get twice their moneys worth.

Another interesting trend to observe this year is the changing way how voters will get their information. With the fragmentation of the media this continues to be the greatest challenge to candidates and campaigns. I also suspect that there is a divide in the use of technology by voters in the more rural areas of South Dakota as opposed to South Dakota’s Interstate corridors.

2006 will be an interesting year. Stay tuned.