SOUTH DAKOTA STRAIGHT TALK

The Dog Days of Summer and the Congressional summer vacation, excuse me, “Summer District Work Period” has arrived. Usually in the off election year and just prior to our South Dakota State Fair we see the top of the ticket political races taking shape.

Ron Volesky has announced he expects to be a candidate for the Democrat nomination for Governor. The Gubernatorial race will be interesting because of Ron’s entertainment value (I will get to the Volesky story another time) although I suspect at this time Mike Rounds who has said he and Dennis Daugaard as his Lieutenant Governor candidate will run again. They will simply try to ignore Volesky and outspend him on media by between 6 to 10 to Volesky’s 1.

After two brutal election cycles there is no US Senate race. The main stream media will have to start making sales calls seeking advertising revenue.

Are Republicans going to get a Ron Volesky type candidate (sacrificial lamb) or a real candidate to run for the U. S. House of Representatives?

Why has no Republican candidate expressed an earnest interest in seeking the Republican nomination against Stephanie Herseth? Do potential candidates not believe she can be beaten (incumbents for election to the US House win 96 plus percent of the time – yes it’s a name identification and money thing)? Perhaps there are no differences between Democrat Stephanie (I want to be an independent voice for South Dakota) Herseth and the Republican philosophy.

For Republicans to have a real chance of beating Stephanie Herseth while the campaign doesn’t have to start now, certain elements must start happening. Obviously a candidate has to be recruited. The full power of the Governor, the Republican Party and Senator Thune (it’s also best for his political health to take the Congresswoman out of the picture now) should be brought to assure any Republican challenger that they will not be in this campaign alone. It is essential for all the Republican Statewide candidates including the Governor, to keep the Democrats engaged in defending Stephanie Herseth. If Republicans fail to keep Rep. Herseth and Democrat activists engaged in her campaign, they and the Dem Party resources may be employed against other Republican statewide and legislative candidates. This might include the Governor or down ballot races like Attorney General, Secretary of State or some other statewide office. The best defense is a good offense against Stephanie.

She’s Vulnerable - To replace our Congresswoman, first you have to believe you can. Believe it or not Stephanie Herseth is vulnerable. After one full year in office she has proven to be ineffective. No one came name neither any legislation that she has sponsored nor any legislation that she has passed. What has she done in the way of constituent services? Her performance in dealing with the BRAC Commission dealing with Ellsworth compared to the our Senators appears “me too.” She has rapidly lost her girl next-door reputation and her voting record that she characterizes as Independent has been inconsistent.

Since first being elected a little more than a year ago she has been to perhaps 11 foreign countries. Has she been in your town here in South Dakota?

Stephanie Herseth is a nice person. She’s cute. Her grandfather (no not the one in the commercials) was Governor of South Dakota for two years back when Eisenhower was President. But she has been totally ineffective so far and since our State has only one voice out of 435 congressmen, we need somebody who can start getting some work done.

When first elected I thought our Congresswoman had much potential, in the last year it has not developed. Stephanie Herseth can be beaten in 2006.

What’s Next – The Republican party should let it be known they too believe she can be defeated. Attitudes should become more optimistic. The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee (RCCC) should get in the campaign to help with recruitment and with the offer of some serious cash. (The RCCC may already be involved that I have no knowledge of – however if the past is history and with the existing milieu, I suspect they have Stephanie in the safe column.) An investment in a qualified candidate makes sense now even though it will be a tough race for lots of tactical reasons. Future opportunities for one and by the RCCC engaging in an aggressive campaign against her, their Democrat counterparts will be forced to use assets to protect her seat, similar to the State Democrats being less likely to use their resources against Republicans in other races if she is not challenged. Importantly don’t forget the voter registration advantage that Republicans have.

To conduct and sustain a serious campaign, a candidate should come forward now to organize their campaign. There is time to travel South Dakota and become known. The candidate can achieve name identification on parity with the incumbent. The Republican candidate, if diligent and with help of party leaders can raise perhaps 600,000 dollars here in South Dakota. If the candidate can demonstrate the race will be competitive, the national money will come in for perhaps that much or more. With a million dollars in South Dakota in a relatively quiet election year (no US Senate race plugging up the media), the challenger can win.

A qualified Republican candidate with ambition for high public office should consider that this is the year to become the GOP David. They can win but if that turns out not to be the case, with a credible showing, when South Dakota’s lone seat in the US House of Representatives becomes open, that candidate would have a remarkable advantage. In open primaries there are no shortage of candidates. When the race is contested against an incumbent the sunshine patriots and warriors are missing in action. Having already run a statewide campaign and been the party’s standard-bearer would be an advantage in a crowded field when the seat does become open. I plan to follow up with some history on losing and how losing can create an advantage in the near future.